Biden,Trump, and Ukraine
Sometimes unexpected news from abroad can transform an American presidential election, and Ukraine has that potential this year. Lately, the Ukrainian armed forces, almost out of ammunition, have been retreating and the Russian military appears to be preparing for a major military offensive to be launched in either May or June. Additional U.S. aid is beginning to arrive, but what remains unclear is whether it can restabilize the situation in the face of a major, new Russian assault. A look back at a few earlier presidential elections when conflict in Europe intruded in a big way will provide some perspective on why events in Ukraine might have a similar impact this year.
The single presidential election in modern U.S. history most affected by unexpected military developments in Europe was probably the one held in 1940. In early May of that year, the conventional wisdom was that the two-term incumbent, Franklin Roosevelt, would be retiring at the end of the year and that the Democrats would choose a successor candidate at their summer convention in Chicago. The GOP at that same time was moving toward choosing either New York prosecutor Thomas Dewey or Ohio Senator Robert Taft as its presidential candidate. What disrupted all of that was the unexpected collapse of France’s military in the face of a six-week German military offensive in May and June. Until that happened, many leaders in both parties had expected that World War II was going to play out like World War I, in which France held out for years against German attacks. And then France suddenly fell, and the ongoing American presidential campaign was completely upended.
The timing of France’s defeat could hardly have been more disruptive to that process. The opening session of the GOP national convention in Philadelphia had hardly begun when news arrived of the French government’s surrender. All of a sudden, the two frontrunners, who had earlier taken an isolationist stance on the assumption that France would hold on in 1940, seemed not to know what they were talking about. That unexpected turn of events catapulted outsider Wendell Willkie, the one contender who had earlier seen the crisis in Europe for what it really was, to a thoroughly unexpected 6th ballot victory.
The fall of France had a similarly transformative effect on the Democratic national convention. Nazi Germany military victories in Europe underscored the need for a presidential candidate who was knowledgeable and experienced in foreign policy and that prompted the delegates to nominate Franklin Roosevelt for an unprecedented third term.
As the German air force began bombing the United Kingdom heavily in September 1940, seemingly preparing to invade England, wavering swing voters in America increasingly moved toward support for Roosevelt out of a sense that the country needed an experienced commander in chief for the next four years. Despite having trailed behind Willkie in the polls taken during the summer, Roosevelt steadily gained ground in the fall as the Nazi military juggernaut moved forward, and ultimately won a third term.
Something similar happened eight years later, when unexpected news from Europe helped produce another unexpected presidential election outcome. In the spring of 1948 seemingly everyone assumed that New York Governor Thomas Dewey would be elected president that fall because the incumbent, Democrat Harry Truman, had such a mixed record as president. During his tenure, high inflation, labor unrest, and an image as an old and not very distinguished professional politician seemed to assure his defeat by Dewey in November.
The Soviets’ decision to block road and rail access to West Berlin in June, then jointly occupied by American, British, and French military forces, from the rest of West Germany, created the first genuine Cold War crisis and decisively altered the American presidential election. Truman opted to resupply West Berlin by air, meaning U.S. military planes would be flying regularly over Soviet-controlled East Germany. Should a Russian anti-aircraft gunner shoot down one of those planes, World War III might begin. That possibility shook up the presidential race. As the Cold War confrontation intensified, Truman began rising in the polls, in part because Dewey had no significant foreign policy experience. From roughly a ten-point deficit Truman managed to overtake Dewey by Election Day, winning a thoroughly unexpected victory.
What makes the current situation in Europe even more confusing than those earlier ones is that the conflict in Gaza has distracted leading American politicians and the general public from what’s been going on recently in Ukraine. That turn of events made the effort to provide more U.S. military aid to Ukraine a long, grueling struggle in Congress, which has imperiled Ukraine’s efforts to stem the Russian military’s advance. Should Ukraine’s army continue to retreat (or actually collapse) in the next six months, that has the potential to disrupt the 2024 presidential ways in multiple ways.
Consider, for example, Donald Trump’s choice of a running mate. At the moment, much of the buzz is about Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio. But Vance is a young, first term senator who has staked out an isolationist position on Ukraine. Russian success on the battlefield there could fatally undermine his prospects. And then there is the impact of worsening war news from Europe on the general election outcome. A Russian military breakthrough in Ukraine would alarm Europeans and much of the rest of the world. That could tilt the electoral playing field in favor of Joe Biden, who has long called for more military aid to Ukraine as truly needed, and against the GOP if, as seems likely, its national ticket takes a more isolationist stance in the general election.